Tuesday, 31 May 2011

Seatbelts vs Crime

In South Africa, the big problem is violent crime, and everyone is very concerned.

This can be used to demonstrate how people misjudge risk, and make bad trade-offs: If I could invent a device which would reduce your chance of being killed in a criminal act by half (statistically proven), I would probably be a billionaire in a very short time, as people would be willing to pay thousands for such a device, and probably be willing to fork out a monthly subscription fee as well.  They would force their children to get one, and if someone owned such a device, and didn't use it, they would be labeled as lunatics and gambling with their lives.  If they neglected getting their children to use it, they would be ostracised in polite society, and would be ashamed to admit it.

Now, in South Africa, our road death toll is roughly equivalent to our crime death toll.  A device exists that reduces your chance of being killed in an accident by much more than half - and comes standard with every single car, for decades already.  It is called a seatbelt.  Yet by my informal survey, between a third and two thirds of people do not wear their seatbelts regularly; some even fasten them over the empty seat and sit on them to silence the warning buzzer.  The figures for children are actually worse - very few people would hesitate to take a quick trip with their children not in a car seat or wearing a seatbelt.  This includes smart, educated people with the financial wherewithal to afford car seats...

The number one cause of unnatural death in children is car accidents, where they often have not been properly restrained...

And in case you feel like ignoring this because you do not stay in South Africa, keep in mind that in almost all other countries the chances of dying in a car accident is at least an order of a magnitude higher than the chance of dying due to a criminal act, yet I am willing to bet you would still consider the Criminal Death Preventer....

If you are one of the people religiously wearing a seatbelt, and doing the same for your children, you probably agree with me 100%.

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